MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-14T00:21:08
High energy electron flux appears to be in a steady state with no significant enhancements due, only potential slight solar wind enhancements from weak coronal hole influence. Therefore the corresponding fluence is expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) threshold.
MOSWOC REFM is currently underestimating the fluence, and a steady or very slightly increasing trend is preferred to the forecast declining trend, but despite this the REFM model is still giving good guidance as it keeps the fluence well below the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-05-14T00:21:08 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |