Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-13T00:12:17

High energy electron flux showed a lower diurnal peak than in recent days and is now thought to be near a steady state, with no further significant enhancements due until later this working week at the earliest. The chances of Active electron fluence are now much lower than previously advertised as the Van Allen belts' previous high populations from the last working week look to have been redistributed by intervening geomagnetic activity from CH46's fast wind. Overall, fluence may perhaps rise to a peak Slight Chance by early day three, Thursday 15 May, before any fast wind from CH49/- or CME influence reduces counts at GEO.

MOSWOC REFM maintains its recent thoughts of fluence levels remaining sub-Active given persistence, and while this is accepted, confidence is lowered by the fact that a CME featured in the relevant time window on last rotation.