Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-11T00:11:08

High energy electron flux observed by GOES19 has been moderate over the last 24 hours, with a dropout of previously high levels occurring due to the onset of the fast winds of CH46. While some recharging of the Van Allen belts is likely from this fast wind, confidence is low with the magnitude of this, with the previous rotation only seeing a modest increase with only brief spells above 1000pfu.

The associated fluence was active for much of the 10 May, but has now dropped below active levels. Fluence is now expected to remain below the active threshold throughout the period, perhaps rising slightly later in the period if any riding flux levels are observed. This is supported by MOSWOC REFM, albeit initial forecast values are too high.