Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-10T00:22:22

High energy electron flux observed by GOES19 has been Moderate to High through the last three days, peaking over 10000pfu on each day, but with an overall declining trend as the recent strong enhancement eases. The onset of any fast winds of CH46 on day 1 (10 May) may be the cause of the recent drop out in the overall flux and this likely to continue at first. While some recharging of the Van Allen belts is then likely from this fast wind, confidence is low with the extent of this, with the previous rotation only seeing a modest increase with only brief spells above 1000pfu.

The associated fluence is expected to persist at Active on day 1 (10 May) with a chance of this continuing into day 2 (11 May). However, confidence is then low for this to continue beyond this date, likely easing below the Active level. This is supported by persistence, and also by REFM which shows a gradual declining trend, however REFM does not account for any subsequent enhancement from potential fast wind onset on day 1 (10 May).