Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-09T00:11:09

High energy electron flux as observed by GOES19 continues at predominantly high levels following the recent coronal hole fast wind connection. With only low confidence on any notable geomagnetic enhancements from possible CME activity and potential CH46 influence, mainly High flux may persist at least in the short term, with decreasing confidence towards the end of the period.

The associated 24-hour fluence is currently comfortably above the Active threshold and is likely to remain at a similar level at the start of the period, with confidence falling away later in the guidance period. MOSWOC REFM's guidance seems reasonable, likely staying above the Active threshold through much of the period, but with a probable downward trend developing.