Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-08T00:08:51

High energy electron flux as observed by GOES19 has responded to the recent coronal hole fast wind enhancement, with long periods of High flux in the past 24 hours. With no further notable geomagnetic enhancements likely, mainly High flux may persist, albeit with a decreasing confidence by the end of the period, especially should CME activity arrive and also if CH46 connects with Earth.

The associated 24-hour fluence is currently above the Active threshold and is likely to remain at a similar level through much of the period, with confidence falling away later in the guidance period. MOSWOC REFM's guidance has proven rather exuberant in the predicted higher levels and something closer to persistence is preferred, i.e. now tracking near (but above) Active, as opposed to Very Active.