Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-03T00:10:18

High energy electron flux as observed by GOES19 has been generally Moderate levels, peaking briefly at High levels, under the influence of the HSS from CH42 and associated G1/Minor Storm periods. The high energy electron flux is expected to persist at largely Moderate levels at first, as we see the next HSS from CH44 arrive, helping to suppress the Van Allen belt away from GEO with further periods of G1/Minor storm intervals expected. Then as the HSS connection begins to wane and the electron belt expand back out to the location of GEO, an increase in electron flux is likely from day 3 (05 May), to reach High flux levels at times. Persistent high flux levels may develop towards the end of the period, therefore leading to an increased chance of Active fluence levels. Guidance from MOSWOC REFM output is forecasting a slow but slight increase through the period. This trend is viewed with reasonable confidence. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is currently forecast to remain below the Active level at first, but with an increasing chance of breaching the Active threshold from Day 3 (05 May) onwards.