Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-02T00:27:37

High energy electron flux as observed by GOES19 has been at generally Moderate levels, despite the current connection to the HSS from CH42 and associated G1/Minor Storm periods. The high energy electron flux is expected to persist at Moderate levels at first, then increase from Day 2 (03 May), to reach High flux levels at times. Persistent high flux levels may develop towards the end of the period, therefore leading to a chance of Active fluence levels. However, confidence is low regarding this as a new HSS from CH44 is expected during Day 3 (04 May), which may suppress high energy electron levels.

The associated 24 hour fluence is currently forecast to remain below the Active level, but with an increasing chance of breaching the Active threshold from late Day 2 (03 May) onwards. This trend is supported by 27-day persistence, while the REFM suggests a more steady trend, which is considered unlikely.