Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-01T00:22:36

High energy electron flux as observed by GOES19 mainly Moderate, and expected to persist at this level until any response from the fast wind enhancement from CH42 occurs on day 1-2 (01-02 May). This will likely initially bring a drop out in observed values, before potentially recovering to become Moderate or perhaps High by days 3-4 (03-04 May). 

The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to persist below the Active level for much of the period, but with a rising trend likely from late day 2 (02 May). This will bring an increasing chance of breaching the Active threshold by the end of day 3 (03 May) onwards. This trend is supported by both REFM and 27-day persistence.