Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-30T00:17:02

High energy electrons have shown a stable diurnal oscillation for some days now in the wake of the initial fast wind from CH34/+. Any resurgence from CH34/+ or entry into CH41/+ now appears less likely, and if present their magnitude can be inferred to be lower for being later in arriving. The upshot is that a continuation of the steady-state at GEOS19 can now be expected to continue until the start of the UTC month of May, whereupon the fast wind from CH42/- may arrive. 24-hour integrated electron fluence is not likely to react upwards until after this feature matures, which gives a Chance of Active fluence in days three and four (2 and 3 May), with more likelihood probably falling over the UTC weekend.

The most relevant part of the electron fluence forecast falls outside the 72-hour range of MOSWOC REFM guidance, which indicates a level or falling trend in the lead up, which is perhaps reflective of gradual electron population losses at GEO in a near-ambient environment.