Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-29T00:12:15

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at moderate during the last 24 hours. The recent high-speed stream likely increased electron flux at altitudes below GEO, however the potential for further fast wind influence through this period means that the Van Allen belts are likely to stay somewhat compressed unless wind speeds drop significantly. A further increase in electron flux is therefore possible but unlikely in the next couple of days. Once the high-speed stream from CH42/- becomes established a more substantial drop in electron flux is likely, though this may not take place until Day 4 (02 May).

The 24 hour fluence is most likely to stay below Active (1e8 integrated pfu), but with just a slight chance of exceeding during this period. Any significant response in fluence is more likely to occur after the next high-speed stream from CH42/-, therefore well after the end of this forecast period. MOSWOC REFM is forecasting below Active levels through this period, which reflects the most likely outcome.