Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-27T00:12:49

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at mostly Moderate levels during the last 24 hours. The recent HSS likely increased electron flux at altitudes below GEO, and the arrival of the CME earlier on 24 April may also have helped to suppress the electron flux at GEO further. The chance of Active fluence looks unlikely unless any renewed coronal hole influence in the first half of the period is sufficient to raise electron levels later in the period. MOSWOC REFM looks good guidance for the overall trend, although is underestimating fluence levels at present. 

The associated 24-hour fluence is currently below Active (1e8 integrated pfu) and on a slight rising trend. An eventual electron fluence rise may manifest later in the four-day period after initial GEO suppression, although this is perhaps now considered less likely.