Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-26T00:14:15

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at mostly Moderate levels during the last 24 hours. The recent HSS likely increased electron flux at altitudes below GEO, and the arrival of the CME earlier on 24 April may also have helped to suppress the electron flux at GEO further. Any further increases in electron counts at GEO now look increasingly overdue however, and the chances of Active fluence have been adjusted downwards in the near-term - a trend that is now also showing in the latest MOSWOC REFM output. 

The associated 24-hour fluence is currently below Active (1e8 integrated pfu), on a generally flat trend. The geomagnetic forecast sees a further bite of the cherry for CH34/+ over the coming UTC weekend - should this occur, an eventual electron fluence rise may manifest later in the four-day period after initial GEO suppression, although this is perhaps now considered less likely to trouble the Active threshold given that it failed to reach this level on its first attempt late in the past UTC week.