Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-22T00:15:08

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at mostly moderate levels during the last 24 hours. Now that CH HSS effects are affecting Earth, any increase in electron flux is likely to show itself at GEO towards the end of the guidance period, with the likelihood of breaching diurnally high flux levels by around Day 3 or 4 (24-25 Apr) as was the case in the previous rotation. In the meantime, the current effects of the HSS from CH34, during Days 1 and 2 (22 and 23 Apr), are likely to suppress electron flux, at least temporarily.

The associated 24 hour fluence is currently below Active (1e8 integrated pfu) and has been on a slightly declining trend. After a probable continuing decline for the next couple of days a rise in fluence is probable later in the period, but is expected to remain below the Active threshold.