Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-20T00:12:36

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at mostly moderate levels during the last 24 hours. Now that recent CME and CH HSS effects have waned, any increase in electron flux is likely to show itself at GEO over the next day or so, with the possibility of reaching diurnally high flux levels. However, the potential arrival of a HSS from CH34, probably during Day 2 (21 Apr), is likely to suppress electron flux at least temporarily.

The associated 24 hour fluence is currently below Active (1e8 integrated pfu) on a slight rising trend. A slight rise in fluence is possible over the next day or so, but is expected to remain below the Active threshold. MOSWOC REFM looks to be giving reasonable guidance at the present time.