Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-19T00:09:26

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at mostly moderate levels during the last 24 hours. It is possible that the recent CME effects have increased electron flux below GEO. Now that these effects have waned, any increase in electron flux is likely to show itself at GEO over the next day or so, with the possibility of reaching diurnally high flux levels in the coming days. However, the potential arrival of a HSS from CH34, probably on Day 3 (21 Apr), is likely to suppress electron flux at least temporarily.

The associated 24 hour fluence is currently below Active (1e8 integrated pfu) on a steady trend. A rise in fluence is possible over the next couple of days, but expected to remain below the Active threshold. MOSWOC REFM looks to be giving a reasonable guide at present.