Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-17T00:14:12

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at Moderate to Background levels following the arrival of the CME. Flux levels are expected to be maintained at background to moderate levels at GEO through the start of the period. Later in the period as CME influence eases, a resurgence in electron flux is likely, with potential for high flux returning at diurnal peak flux.

The associated 24 hour fluence is likely to continue to decline in response to lessening flux levels following the CME arrival. MOSWOC REFM will not take into account the CME, so is not expected to give good forecast guidance currently. Probabilities in the table below have been lifted a little with the active fluence threshold possibly being reached by day 4 (20 Apr).