MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-16T00:11:54
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) reached moderate to high levels for a time on the 15 April, but these values fell sharply with the arrival of the CME. Flux levels are expected to continue to drop in the coming hours, with GEO seeing flux drop to background levels. Later in the period as CME influence eases, a resurgence in electron flux is possible.
The associated 24 hour fluence is likely to fall through Day 1, in response to falling flux levels. MOSWOC REFM will not take into account the CME, so is not expected to give good forecast guidance currently.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-04-16T00:11:54 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 15% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |