MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-15T00:19:05
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES19 at GEO is expected to be Moderate to High on days 1 (15 Apr). An anticipated CME arrival by day 2 (16 Apr) is then likely to drop out these values, with GEO seeing flux drop to background levels.
The associated 24 hour fluence is now likely to be on a fairly flat trend through days 1 (15 Apr), just below the Active threshold, with only a slight chance of rising above. The expected dropout of flux from day 2 (16 Apr) will lead to a reduced chance of Active fluence. MOSWOC REFM is giving a good guide at present.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-04-15T00:19:05 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |