MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-14T00:12:02
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES19 at GEO is expected to be Moderate to High on days 1-2 (14-15 Apr). An anticipated CME arrival by day 3 (16 Apr) is then likely to drop out these values, with GEO seeing flux drop to background levels.
The associated 24 hour fluence is now likely to be on a fairly flat trend through days 1-2 (14-15 Apr), just below the Active threshold. This only moderate confidence however, although MOSWOC REFM is giving a good guide at present. Any dropout of flux on day 3 (16 Apr) is likely to lead to a reduced chance of Active fluence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-04-14T00:12:02 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |