Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-13T00:21:48

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed at GEO has recently reduced, varying diurnally at Moderate to High levels. A temorary decline in electron flux in upcoming days is probable, based on increased geomagnetic activity due to coronal hole influence (mainly CH29/-).

CH29's span of the disc should mean the associated HSS will likely persist for much of the guidance period , with an increasing likelhood for GEO electrons recovering their orbits as initial geomagnetic activity wanes. This gives high energy electron flux at Moderate to High levels with a probable upward  trend given the ongoing coronal hole high speed stream. This is low confidence. The associated 24-hour electron fluence starting below the Active threshold on Day 1 (13 April), but with an increasing chance of exceeding this on days 3 and 4 (15 and 16 Apr), given the elevated solar winds now underway, although this is also low confidence.