Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-10T00:28:22

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed at GEO has been persistently High to Moderate with a declining trend after the recent elevated solar winds with a peak in the last 24 hours of 3820pfu at 09/0940 UTC. 

Solar winds are expected to be at slightly elevated to elevated levels through the start of the period due to fast wind onsets from coronal holes in the western hemisphere, with subsequent geomagnetic activity through the period. Any geomagnetic activity as a result of a connection to the fast winds from CH31 or CH29 on days 1 and 2 may reduce the electron flux to Moderate, or potentially background for a time. Electron flux may subsequently rise although confidence lowers from day 3 onwards. 

The associated 24h fluence is currently Active, and expected to persist at this level though day 1 (10 Apr)  and likely into day 2 (11 Apr). Confidence decreases beyond this however with the potential for the electrons to rebound out to the location of GEO once any geomagnetic enhancements have eased. MOSWOC REFM has been showing initially a declining trend, which has been reflected in reality, followed by a increase in fluence again.