Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-09T00:36:36

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed at GEO has been persistently High to Moderate after the recent fast wind connection to CH27 with a peak in the last 24 hours of 10300pfu at 08/1730 UTC. 

A brief ease in elevated solar winds are expected at first, however there is the potential for further fast wind onsets, and subsequent geomagnetic activity through the period. These are most likely to occur through day 1 (09 Apr) due to CH31 or later day 2 and into day 3 (10-11 Apr) due to CH29. Any such connections, and the subsequent increased solar wind pressure and geomagnetic activity, are likely to reduce the flux to Moderate, or potentially Background for a time, with a more subdued recovery then likely. Otherwise, High flux is expected to continue. 

The associated 24h fluence is currently Active, and expected to persist at this level though day 1 (09 Apr) with a declining risk through the period. Confidence decreases towards the end of the period with the potential for any further coronal hole sourced enhancements to limit the observed flux at GEO, along with a likely natural decay, inline with current MOSWOC REFM and 27-day persistence trend. Although REFM is currently over-estimating the likely peak fluence in the next 24 hours, however the overall trend looks reasonable.