Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-07T00:18:13

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 has been persistently High after the recent fast wind connection to CH27. These fast winds have persisted, however there is some potential for further geomagnetic activity, if any connection is made to the following small coronal holes, CH30 or CH31. This is most likely from CH31 with a connection likely on day 4 (10 Apr).  Any such connections are likely to reduce the flux to Moderate, or potentially Background for a time, with a more subdued recovery then likely. Otherwise, High flux is expected to continue. 

The associated 24h fluence is currently Active, and expected to persist at this level though days 1-2. Confidence then decreases day 3-4 with the potential for any further coronal hole sourced enhancements to limit the observed flux at GEO, along with a likely natural decay, inline with current MOSWOC REFM and 27-day persistence trend. Although REFM is currently over-estimating the likely peak fluence in the next 24 hours