MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-06T00:10:37
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 increased to reach 2350pfu at 05/1525UTC on the diurnal peak, and is likely to be Moderate to High in the coming days after the recent fast wind connection. However, this could be limited by any glancing CME early day 1 (06 Apr).
Further reductions in observed flux are also possible if any re-enhancement to solar winds occurs on day 3-4 (08-09 Apr), from the onset of any further fast winds from the unnumbered coronal hole features. This remains low confidence however, with a chance that Moderate to High flux will continue but on a declining trend.
Overall, persistence and REFM is currently providing a good guidance for the expected associated 24 hour fluence trend, although observed values are currently higher. Therefore, there is a good chance of reaching Active days 1-3 (06-08 Apr).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-04-06T00:10:37 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 60% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |