MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-02T00:09:13
High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) has been close to or above the High threshold for the past 24 hours and will likely continue above the threshold initially, but with a reducing trend. This is, in part, due to the easing of the HSS from CH25/+ at Earth, but also some minor CME influence. Any enhanced geomagnetic activity from a connection to the next CH28/+ beginning on Day 1 (02 Apr) and the possibility of a CME arrival also on Day 1 (02 Apr), may serve to 'knock-down' electron counts at GEO. Active levels of the 24-hour integrated fluence have been observed since 29/1500 UTC, and is forecast to remain Active into the start of Day 1 (02 Apr), before likely falling below this threshold from later on Day 1 onward.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-04-02T00:09:13 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |