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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-02T00:09:13

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) has been close to or above the High threshold for the past 24 hours and will likely continue above the threshold initially, but with a reducing trend. This is, in part, due to the easing of the HSS from CH25/+ at Earth, but also some minor CME influence. Any enhanced geomagnetic activity from a connection to the next CH28/+ beginning on Day 1  (02 Apr) and the possibility of a CME arrival also on Day 1 (02 Apr), may serve to 'knock-down' electron counts at GEO. Active levels of the 24-hour integrated fluence have been observed since 29/1500 UTC, and is forecast to remain Active into the start of Day 1 (02 Apr), before likely falling below this threshold from later on Day 1 onward. 

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2025-04-02T00:09:13
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 100% 1%
Day 2 40% 1%
Day 3 30% 1%
Day 4 20% 1%