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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-03-31T00:28:56

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) has been above the High threshold for the past 24 hours and is likely to continue above the threshold initially, with a reducing trend. This, in part, due to the reduction in the HSS from CH25/+, any enhanced geomagnetic activity from a connection to the next CH28/+ on Day 1/2 (31Mar /01 Apr) and the possibility of a CME arrival on day 3 (02 Apr), which may serve to knock-out electron counts at GEO late in the period. Active levels of the 24-hour integrated fluence has been observed since 29/1500 UTC and are expected to remain Active through days 1 and potentially day 2 (31 Mar/01 Apr), before reducing confidence from day 3 onward.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2025-03-31T00:28:56
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 95% 1%
Day 2 80% 1%
Day 3 40% 1%
Day 4 30% 1%