MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-03-31T00:28:56
High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) has been above the High threshold for the past 24 hours and is likely to continue above the threshold initially, with a reducing trend. This, in part, due to the reduction in the HSS from CH25/+, any enhanced geomagnetic activity from a connection to the next CH28/+ on Day 1/2 (31Mar /01 Apr) and the possibility of a CME arrival on day 3 (02 Apr), which may serve to knock-out electron counts at GEO late in the period. Active levels of the 24-hour integrated fluence has been observed since 29/1500 UTC and are expected to remain Active through days 1 and potentially day 2 (31 Mar/01 Apr), before reducing confidence from day 3 onward.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-03-31T00:28:56 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 95% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 80% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |