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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-03-30T00:36:11

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) exceeded Active 24-hour integrated fluence at 29/1500 UTC in the wake of CH25/+ HSS. Geomagnetic activity is due to decline for day 1 and day 2 (30 and 31 Mar). There is a chance of an Earth-directed CME released in the vicinity of AR4043 at 28/2339 UTC but imagery is currently not available to analyse this feature. This increases the uncertainty in the outlook slightly. MOSWOC Enlil suggests a minor fast wind may feature on 01 April, which may provide a minor rise in geomagnetic activity to make the continuation of Active fluence into the new month slightly less certain.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2025-03-30T00:36:11
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 100% 1%
Day 2 90% 1%
Day 3 90% 1%
Day 4 50% 1%