MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-03-30T00:36:11
High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) exceeded Active 24-hour integrated fluence at 29/1500 UTC in the wake of CH25/+ HSS. Geomagnetic activity is due to decline for day 1 and day 2 (30 and 31 Mar). There is a chance of an Earth-directed CME released in the vicinity of AR4043 at 28/2339 UTC but imagery is currently not available to analyse this feature. This increases the uncertainty in the outlook slightly. MOSWOC Enlil suggests a minor fast wind may feature on 01 April, which may provide a minor rise in geomagnetic activity to make the continuation of Active fluence into the new month slightly less certain.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-03-30T00:36:11 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 90% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 1% |