MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-03-29T00:15:59
High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is Expected to surpass Active 24-hour integrated fluence into the start of this four-day period in the wake of CH25's Strong fast wind. The diurnal flux has already exceeded its relevant analog from last pass, and as geomagnetic activity wanes through the coming UTC weekend, there should be little to suppress counts at GEO. MOSWOC Enlil suggests a minor fast wind may feature on 01 April, which may provide a minor rise in geomagnetic activity to make the continuation of Active fluence into the new month slightly less certain.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-03-29T00:15:59 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 80% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 90% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 80% | 5% |