Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-03-26T12:04:42

GOES16 High energy (>2MeV) Electron flux has been at background to moderate levels. With a chance of enhanced geomagnetic activity due to the HSS from CH25+ at the start of the period, the Van Allen belt is likely to be suppressed away from GEO and electron flux is therefore expected to remain at background to moderate levels. However, as the geomagnetic activity wanes by the end of the period, the charged electron belts may expand back out to the location of GEO, seeing a rise in the electrons later in the period. 

Electron (1e8 integrated pfu) fluence should remain below the Active threshold throughout the period. MOSWOC REFM shows the electron fluence should remain below the Active threshold throughout the period, with a rising trend and is considered reasonable guidance with moderate confidence currently.