MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-03-23T00:13:00
GOES16 High energy (>2MeV) Electron flux was at background to moderate levels. With CME and CH HSS influences through the periods, flux levels are expected to remain at similar levels until later in the period, perhaps becoming diurnally high by day 4 (26 Mar).
MOSWOC REFM shows the electron fluence should remain below the Active threshold throughout the remainder of the period, and is considered reasonable guidance, albeit with low confidence as a slightly increasing trend towards the end of the period is possible.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-03-23T00:13:00 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |