MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-03-22T00:37:29
GOES16 High energy (>2MeV) Electron flux was at background to moderate levels, peak 960 pfu at 21/1440 UTC . With possible weak CME arrivals over the next few days, most likely late on the Day 1 (22 Mar), flux levels are expected to remain at largely background until later in the period after the arrival of the HSS from CH24.
MOSWOC REFM shows the electron fluence should remain below the Active threshold throughout the remainder of the period, and is considered reasonable guidance, albeit with low confidence as a slightly increasing trend towards the end of the period is possible.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-03-22T00:37:29 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |