Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-03-19T13:11:17

GOES16 High energy (>2MeV) Electron flux has fallen from diurnally high levels over recent days down close to background. With possible CME arrivals expected over the next few days (19-21 Mar), this may serve to clear some electrons from their orbits, keeping flux at background to moderate levels, although prior to, or in the absence of, any CME arrivals electron flux could return to high levels. Confidence is therefore low due to these uncertainties in the CME forecast.

The associated 24 hour fluence has recently returned to below threshold levels, on a slow declining trend. MOSWOC REFM shows the fluence should remain below the Active threshold throughout the remainder of the period, especially with possible CMEs arrivals in the coming days, and is considered reasonable guidance, albeit with low confidence.