Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-03-19T00:38:57

GOES16 High energy (>2MeV) Electron flux has been varying between Moderate and High on the satellites diurnal cycle, as a result of the recent connection to coronal hole fast winds, and the subsequent outward expansion of the charged Van Allen belts as this wind eases. Flux is expected to continue varying diurnally between Moderate and peak High, but with both the period of High flux and peak values are expected to gradually decrease through the period. With possible CME arrival/s due 19-21 March, this may serve to clear some electrons from their orbits, reducing flux on subsequent days.

The associated 24 hour fluence has recently returned to below threshold levels, due to the arrival of a glancing CME. MOSWOC REFM shows the fluence should remain below the Active threshold throughout the remainder of the period, especially with possible CMEs arrivals in the coming days.