Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-03-17T00:42:40

GOES16 High energy (>2MeV) Electron flux has been varying between Moderate and High on the satellites diurnal cycle, as a result of the recent connection to the fast wind from CH22/- and the subsequent outward expansion of the charged Van Allen belts as this wind eases. A brief drop out is possible on day 1 (17 Mar) alongside any increase in the solar wind pressure from the onset of any further enhancement from the fast wind from CH23/-, however this is low confidence.  Otherwise, the flux is expected to continue varying diurnally between Moderate and peak High, but with both the period of High flux and peak values are expected to gradually decrease later in the period.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to continue above Active (1e8 integrated pfu) at first, but with lower confidence for this to persist into days 3-4 (18-19 Mar). A declining trend is supported by both 27 day persistence and MOSWOC REFM, with observations currently lying between these two models, however these do not take account of any further enhancement that may occur, and are also currently showing a declining trend, while observations are rising. This lowers confidence in this forecast.