Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-03-16T00:48:25

Despite the ongoing fast wind from CH22/-, some outward expansion of the Van Allen belts has been occurring, with periods of high flux observed by GOES-16, and persistently High during this satellites diurnal peak. This is expected to continue, but with a chance of brief period of drop out from any fast wind enhancement either late day 1 or early day 2 (16-17 Mar),. Beyond this, a gradual and erratic decay of the observed flux likely, similar to on the previous rotation, although likely occurring slower than this suggests. Further periods of High flux are likely, but peak values are likely to be gradually declining with the periods of High flux also decreasing. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to continue at Active day 1-2 (16-17 Mar), but with confidence for this to persist days 3-4 (18-19 Mar) falling.  This is supported by 27-day recurrence. MOSWOC REFM is currently overestimating the observed flux, and subsequently the forecast values from this model are also likely over-estimated.