Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-03-15T00:36:55

Despite the ongoing fast wind from CH22/-, some outward expansion of the Van Allen belts has been occurring with periods of high flux observed by GOES-16. This has been significantly higher and longer lasting during 14 March, allowing the 24 hour fluence to rise close to the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. Overall, electron flux is most likely to continue peaking at high levels during the diurnal maxima in the coming days. However, there is some potential for periods of dropout associated with any geomagnetic activity that occurs. This is most likely if we see a CIR at the onset of CH23/- on Days 2-3 (16-17 Mar), although this is low confidence and the current fast wind from CH22 could merge into CH23 without any significant geomagnetic effects.

Overall the fluence is currently rising, and is now very close to Active, and is expected to rise above Active during Days 1-2 (15-16 Mar). Confidence then decreases during Days 3-4 (17-18 Mar) due to the uncertainty regarding the next HSS arrival. MOSWOC REFM is suggesting that fluence will remain above Active during the next 3 days, which seems like reasonable guidance at the present time, although perhaps with overall values slightly too high.