Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-03-13T13:23:00

The high-energy electron flux (>2MeV) observed at GOES16 recently became supressed due to the onset of the fast wind of CH22/+. These fast winds are likely to ease a little day 2-3 (14-15 Mar) which could allow for an outward expansion of the Van Allen belts, and a subsequent increase in the observed flux at GEO, likely reaching Moderate to High for a time. Confidence becomes very low by day 4 (16 Mar) however, with the potential re-enhancement to the solar wind from the onset of and fast wind from CH23/-. This could lead to flux dropping out towards background.

Overall the fluence is expected to see a rising trend, with a chance of reaching Active (1e8 integrated pfu) by the end of day 2 (14 Mar). This chance then persists through the rest of the period, albeit with decreasing confidence day 4 (16 Mar). This is supported by 27 day persistence, with MOSWOC REFM also showing a rising trend, although later in the period than currently forecast.