Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-03-12T13:05:03

The high-energy electron flux (>2MeV) observed at GOES16 has been reaching diurnally high levels, as solar winds continue to ease after the previous enhancement. Electron flux is expected to be diurnally high again Days 1-2 (12-13 Mar). A reduction is then likely into Days 3 and 4 (14/15 Mar) once the next coronal hole and geomagnetic activity affects GEO, likely supressing the Van Allen belts. 

The 24 hour integrated fluence is currently above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, and is expected to remain so through Day 1 and into early Day 2 (12-13 Mar). A declining trend is most probable later Day 2 and for the remainder of the period (14-15 Mar) due to coronal hole high speed stream influence. MOSWOC REFM is considered to be giving a reasonable guidance, although underplaying the maximum fluence somewhat.