Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-03-09T12:38:35

The high-energy electron flux (>2MeV) as observed at GOES16 is forecast to be at mainly background at first, but then rising as solar winds and geomagnetic activity eases from the recent fast wind connection. This will lead to Moderate flux, and an increasing chance of persistent High flux later day 2 (10 Mar). Confidence is low for the longevity of this high flux however due to the potential fast wind onset from CH22/- later on day 4 (12 Mar), providing the potential for drop out of the observed flux at GEO.  

The associated fluence 24 hour is subsequently expected to rise through much of the period, with an increasing chance of reaching the Active threshold by day 3 (11 Mar). With the source of this enhancement being similar to the previous rotation, recurrence is likely providing the best guidance, albeit with the potential for this enhancement to occur sooner due to the likely reduction in solar winds on day 1-2 (09-10 Mar), which was not observed on the previous rotation. MOSWOC REFM has not yet taken account of the recent fast wind onset, and is currently providing poor guidance.