MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-03-08T00:25:48
The high-energy electron flux (>2MeV), as observed at GOES16, has been Normal Background to Moderate which is expected to continue at first. There is an increasing chance of diurnally peaking towards High by Day 3 (10 March), following connection with CH21/-.
The associated 24-hour fluence is declining and is likely to remain below Active as indicated by MOSWOC REFM guidance output, perhaps with a rising trend developing on Day 3 (10 March).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-03-08T00:25:48 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 15% | 1% |