MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-08T13:07:59
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has risen to moderate to high levels, following an expected flux increase in the radiation belt after the recent CME and ongoing HSS, with high levels expected to continue as these effects continue to ease.
The associated 24-hour electron fluence is expected to be just below the Active threshold at first, but with an expectation for it to exceed the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold by later Day 1 (8 Nov) and remaining so through the remainder of the period, with a slight but increasing chance of reaching 1e9 integrated pfu. Latest MOSWOC REFM model is viewed as providing good guidance over the coming days.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-11-08T13:07:59 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 80% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 90% | 15% |
| Day 4 | 90% | 20% |