MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-25T00:12:37
Electron flux observed by GOES16 at GEO is currently at Normal Background levels with a slight diurnal rise to Moderate, and is very likely to remain here given the expected lack of CMEs and modest potency of inbound coronal hole fast winds.
Persistence forecasting for the 24-hour fluence is polluted by CMEs influence on the last rotation, however the latest MOSWOC REFM is almost unmoved from current 24-hour fluence levels across its full 72-hour range. This may be expected to show more of an uptick due to the influence of CH64/- from Day 2 onwards, however even this will probably fall short of Active levels.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-10-25T00:12:37 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |