Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-24T00:36:40

Electron flux observed by GOES16 at GEO is currently at Normal Background levels and is very likely to remain here given the expected relative lack of CMEs and modest potency of inbound coronal holes' fast winds - at least until the possible arrival of CH64/+.

Persistence forecasting for the 24-hour fluence is polluted by CMEs from the last rotation, however the latest MOSWOC REFM is almost unmoved from current 24-hour fluence levels across its full 72-hour range. This may be expected to show more of an uptick due to the influence of CH64/+ from Day 3 onwards, however even this will probably fall short of Active levels.