Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-16T00:16:30

The electron forecast is relatively low confidence for the period as a whole. This is in part due to the dissimilarity of coronal holes versus last pass, but also because of their close succession (especially recent delayed CH58/- and impending CH60/+) and the presence of possible CMEs. To this end, MOSWOC REFM is not felt to offer anything other than a general trend, which is currently hinting at levels approaching Active 24-hour fluence as a measure of potential.

The recent mainly Normal Background diurnal oscillation in flux at GEO should react upwards in the first 24 hours, but ought to be attenuated by geomagnetic activity arising from CH60/+ before the fluence troubles the Active threshold. The wake of CH60/+ ought to offer more favourable conditions for realising Active, however either of the pair of inbound CMEs will likely serve to interrupt and redistribute electrons before any lasting rise is seen.

Overall, a rising Chance of Active fluence is the preferred forecast for the four days as a whole, with flux levels more stable to end the week than starting it.