Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-10T00:28:01

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16 has peaked at moderate levels at the diurnal maximum in recent days, but is expected to continue at mainly background. Any fast wind arrival from CH57/58, along side the potential CME arrival late day 2 or day 3 (11-12 Oct) is expected to initially surpress observed values, but increase electron flux through the Van Allen Belts at lower orbits. This may lead to the observed flux at GEO increasing as solar wind pressure eases, bringing a chance of Moderate, perhaps peaking High by day 4 (13 Oct). 

Electron fluence is forecast to be well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level throughout, however, albeit with an increasing trend from late day 3 or day 4 (12-13 Oct). MOSWOC REFM output is currently giving good guidance.