Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-09T00:31:59

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16 has achieved moderate levels at the diurnal maximum in recent days. This is expected to continue through the period, with a slight chance of briefly reaching High levels during the diurnal max. The potential HSS arrivals from late day 1 until day 3 (09-11 Oct) could potentially bring a suppression in the flux, before a further increase is likely later in the period. This most likely by the end of day 4 (12 Oct). 

Electron fluence is forecast to be well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level throughout. MOSWOC REFM output is currently giving good guidance.