Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-05T00:10:24

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16, is currently at background levels. Given that the high speed stream from CH55/+ is now very late and therefore unlikely to produce much in the way of wind speed increases, any increase in electron flux in the short term seems unlikely. In addition, should the 02 Oct CME arrive at Earth, this is likely to suppress flux levels in the short term. If the CME does arrive, then a subsequent increase in flux levels is possible later in the period on Days 3 and 4 (07-08 Oct). This is low confidence, however.

The associated 24 fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold throughout the period, perhaps with a slight increase towards the end of the period. REFM forecasts appear to be giving good guidance at this time.