MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-04T00:15:36
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES16, is currently at predominantly background levels. If a HSS from CH55 arrives today then a recovery in flux is then likely from tomorrow (5th Oct), to mainly Moderate levels with a chance of peaking at High during diurnal maximum.
The associated 24 fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, with a generally increasing trend. REFM also shows the fluence remaining below Active, but is currently underestimating the fluence and indicates a decreasing trend.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-10-04T00:15:36 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |