Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-03T00:16:24

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES16, is at Background to Moderate levels, having now declined after  previous enhancement. This is likely to drop out to become solidly background once any connection to to CH55 fast wind occurs either later day 1 or day 2 (03-04 Oct). A recovery in flux is then possible day 3 or day 4 (04-05 Oct) to mainly Moderate with a chance of peaking at High during diurnal maximum.

The associated 24 fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, with a generally declining trend. This is in agreement with REFM although the model is currently overestimating the current fluence. As any coronal hole enhancement eases day 3 onward, there is a chance of fluence increasing again, but is currently expected to remain below Active.